A NOTE FROM THE VOGTS

We are growing again! We have added a wonderful granddaughter to the Vogt Family! This brings us to grandchild #7. Kelsey and Joel had Poppy James Marlette on January 8th, in the middle of the most crazy windy storm in recent history! Poppy is doing fantastic and we are madly in love with her! Grateful beyond words for the whole BIG crew!!!!

Additionally, we are so excited that Kaela Goins, our oldest daughter has joined our business as the newest agent on our team!

We are beginning to see evidence that real estate market is beginning to move forward again and we are excited to stay busy!

Lots of Love,

Kris, Kellie and Kyle

Real News In Real Estate

Meet Kaela Goins!

At the Vogt Real Estate Group we are always aligning ourselves with people of great character and competence. With that in mind we are thrilled to announce that our oldest daughter, Kyle’s Sister, Kaela Goins, has joined our team as a Sales Associate.

Kaela and her husband Myles of 7 years have 3 wonderful children, Rosie, Annie and Owen. There is truth the the saying that busy people get the most done, which defines Kaela! Kaela's background includes a degree from Biola University (Class of 2013), a successful business career with Renaissance Food Group as a Account Manager and for several years serve as a Real Estate Transaction Coordinator for us at The Vogt RE Group. As a result of her previous work and real estate experience, she is ready to serve you and any of your referrals today!!!

Just A Few Of Our Goals for 2023

• Help 24 families buy or sell homes

• Launch the "Know-It-All's" Pod Cast. Stay tuned for more details coming soon!

• Live healthy, intentional and purpose driven! Kyle and Kris have begun training for the Eugene Marathon in April. We are diving back into daily devotions, organizing our days ahead of the day, drinking 64+oz. of water everyday, and turning off the news and reading instead!

Referral Program Continues!

We are continuing to The Vogt Referral Program which rewards you for passing along our name. At the time of closing both you and your friend will be rewarded for using us!

We generally avoid overwhelming you with vast amounts of data. However, this month is an exception as the data is really painting a picture as to what is happening in our real estate market. As such, we have taken a hard look at which segments of the market are still moving rapidly and which segments are seeing the scales tipping in the favor of the buyer. We are also providing graphical insight as to the erosion of buying power as interest rates once again have surged higher.

First, we take a look at the number of homes for sale versus the number of pending sales. We have taken the time to break this down by price point. Also, the data analyzed is for Sacramento, Placer and El Dorado Counties. The grey bar on the graph represents the number of pending sale and the red represents the number of homes for sale in that price range. Without question, demand is outpacing supply significantly between $300k-$399K and $400k-$499k. As we approach $500k-$599k, we begin to see supply begin to exceed demand ever so slightly. As we pass the $600k price point we see the supply of homes increase with more momentum. Oddly, in every price segment, however, we saw an overall decrease in the supply of homes for sale from January to February. It appears at this point that was a result in a surge of buyers looking to get into the market before interest rates jump.

Did we say rate jump? Yep!!! While the middle of February might be a lovely time for many with Valentines Day, it was anything but lovely for rates and for prospective home buyers. The bond market massacre was responsible for rates jumping to their highest since last fall. We began the month with rates in the 5.5%-5.75% range and ended the month with rates at nearly 7%. The impact of this increase on the housing market cannot be understated. For every 1% increase in interest rates, a buyers purchasing power decreases by 9-11%.

A buyer who could have afforded a $500,000 at the beginning of February is now looking at being able to purchase at $450,000 or less as of this writing. What is even more daunting is that the buyer who could have afforded $500,000 last March is now looking at the ability to purchase $350,000 or less! We have never seen rates this high coupled with prices this high . Where will we be in the next 3-6 months? In our opinion, something has to give. Prices will need to move dramatically lower, interest rates will need to come back down or the real estate market will stall and there will be dramatic decline in the number of real estate transactions which will have a significant impact on our overall economy.

Wow…that was a lot and our goal in writing this isn’t to depress anyone. It is to give you the information you need to make informed decisions about buying, selling or investing in real estate. There is a lot of information out there and it isn’t all helpful. Much of the information lacks context and is far removed from the reality of the day to day in our real estate market. During these turbulent and uncertain economic times, we are here to talk through your options as it relates to the best real estate decision for you, your family and friends. We are never too busy to serve you in the days, weeks, months and years ahead!